SC goes to Obama, Clinton loses black supporters...

[a.e.B.O.T.]

So Obama has won the SC democratic primary, all major news publications called it based on exit polls alone. The bigger news seems to be about race do to the racial talk within the last week between Hilary and Obama. Obama dominated the black vote but likewise diminished among white voters greatly. This is being covered everywhere, but it is sort of annoying that there is such a focus on this. Its the media's fault mainly but Hilary Bill and Obama share some of the blame. I voted for Obama for his message, it just seems to have a stronger impact then Clinton. However is Obama's win here going to matter in 10 days when we go to super tuesday where Clinton has a commanding lead?

Anywho, what is everyone's thoughts on South Carolina?

[nittanyalum]

I think it's a good win for Obama, but unless his continued showings in the state processes are impressive enough to peel super-delegates away from Hillary, she still has the nomination locked up, ultimately.

[Drolefille]

If the Obama wins the popular delegate vote and the party still chooses Clinton, the Democrats will LOSE.

[a.e.B.O.T.]

Well, obama is winning the delegate vote. Of course we have only 4 states now. He won the delegate race in Iowa Nevada and SC and TIED in New Hampshire. So, really he didnt lose any. However, he lost the popular vote in Nevada in New Hamshire. However, Cali, NY, and other big states matter so much more and that will show on the 5th which will probably lean towards clinton. HOWEVER, trends have been shifting so fast, and 10 days could change a lot of minds. Obama is still the underdog, and everyone loves the underdog.

[LeslieAGD]

Can someone refresh my memory about how the delegate vs. state vote works?

[AGDee]

Originally Posted by LeslieAGD

Can someone refresh my memory about how the delegate vs. state vote works?

Each state has different rules. In some, the winner in the primary gets all the delegates. In some, the delegates are split according to the voting percentages. Some separate it even further and the delegates are split by the voting percentages but only if a delegate has attained a certain percentage of the votes, otherwise they go as "uncommitted" (like here in MI). It's pretty complicated and is determined by each states' parties. CNN has a list of how many delegates are needed to get the nomination and have a good breakdown of available delegates. Some states also have pre-set delegates or super delegates and it's all really bizarre, actually.

[nittanyalum]

Originally Posted by LeslieAGD

Can someone refresh my memory about how the delegate vs. state vote works?

If you're wondering about super-delegates in particular, here are some links that might help:
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008...gate-list.html

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18277678/

[scbelle]

Originally Posted by AGDee

Each state has different rules. In some, the winner in the primary gets all the delegates. In some, the delegates are split according to the voting percentages. Some separate it even further and the delegates are split by the voting percentages but only if a delegate has attained a certain percentage of the votes, otherwise they go as "uncommitted" (like here in MI). It's pretty complicated and is determined by each states' parties. CNN has a list of how many delegates are needed to get the nomination and have a good breakdown of available delegates. Some states also have pre-set delegates or super delegates and it's all really bizarre, actually.

That's true of the Republican Party. In the Democratic side, all states have the same rules for the delegates-- you are awarded delegates based on the percentage of the vote you capture.

And can I just say YAY!!! to my SC peeps for overwhelmingly voting for Obama!

[LeslieAGD]

Originally Posted by scbelle

That's true of the Republican Party. In the Democratic side, all states have the same rules for the delegates-- you are awarded delegates based on the percentage of the vote you capture.

Your answer doesn't make sense to me...because in Nevada, Hilary got 51% of the popular vote and Obama only got 45%. Hilary only got 12 delegates, but Obama got 13. Why exactly is that?

[nittanyalum]

Originally Posted by LeslieAGD

Your answer doesn't make sense to me...because in Nevada, Hilary got 51% of the popular vote and Obama only got 45%. Hilary only got 12 delegates, but Obama got 13. Why exactly is that?

The Democratic format can get really complicated, it's not just the raw # of votes over the whole state, it actually depends on WHERE in the state the votes come from and how many delegates different districts are worth.

This page has one of the clearer breakdowns: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...wuspols627.xml

• To win the race, a candidate must secure the support of more than half their party's delegates to their nominating convention in the summer - 2,025 out of 4,049 Democrat delegates; or 1,191 out of 2,380 Republican delegates.
• The more votes a candidate receives in each state the more delegates they win. Larger states send more delegates to the convention.
• In many Republican contests, the winner of each state takes all the delegates. But each leading candidate seems able to win some states.
• On the Democrat side, delegates are awarded according to districts won - making it harder for one candidate to acquire a dominating lead. Candidates can score highly by winning the key cities.
• Democrats also have a system of so-called Super Delegates - leading party figures - who can decide for themselves who to support. In this group, Hillary Clinton is ahead of Barack Obama.

[skylark]

I'm so excited for Barack! My husband is totally not understanding my obsession with the primaries. I like to explain to my him that this is like my superbowl (but that only comes every 4 years) and Barack's the quarterback of my favorite team.

Personally, I don't see how any democrat could believe we could win with Hillary. People just don't stop hating someone, no matter how much expensive publicity you throw at them. Republicans who haven't voted in 20 years are drooling at the chance to vote against her -- so many people see her as some kind of antichrist, standing for all things unholy. Even if Hillary-dems think these people are wrong, do these dems really think Hillary-haters' minds can be changed? I just don't get it!

[Senusret I]

I really hate this election so far.

If Hillary wins, the Hillary-haters will vote against her and we'll get a Republican.

If Barack wins, the racists will vote against him and we'll get a republican.

If a republican wins, I'm personally still screwed.

wtf?

[LeslieAGD]

I disagree, Senusret. I still think it's the Democrats race to lose. Any Skylark, although I am not strictly a Democrat, I do think the Democrats can win with Hilary.

I like to watch This Week With George Stephanopoulos on Sundays, and this morning he had Obama on for half an hour. Honestly, it was painful to watch...Obama was talking and talking and I just tuned out...it was like I was listening to the teacher from Charlie Brown (wah wah wah wannn). As usual, I hear Obama speak, but he's not actually saying anything.

[AGDee]

Meet the Press had John McCain on. He was trying to convince everybody that he has always been very conservative. A far cry from the things he was saying the first time he was in the primaries...

[alum]

To include yesterday's results and this week's withdrawals:

For the Republicans:

Magic Number 1,191

Romney 73
McCain 38
Huckabee 29
Paul 6
Giuliani 2
x-Hunter 0
x-Thompson 0


For the Democrats:

Magic Number 2,025

Clinton 230
Obama 152
Edwards 61
x-Biden 0
x-Dodd 0
Gravel 0
x-Kucinich 0
x-Richardson 0