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06-26-2007 05:58 PM |
Another economist/author discussing the Great Depression II
I stumbled across a blog of an author from Amazon.com who wrote a book on the back-then upcoming Great Depression II back in 2004 and his blogs give occasional updates on the accuracy of his predicting the Great Depression II. In short, his predictions from his book have been very much on point to date.
See, I am pulling data from a plethora of sources, so no once can say I am making this stuff up.
Quote:
Warren Brussee's Blog
Mid-June, 2007, Update of “The Second Great Depression”
12:30 PM PDT, June 17, 2007
Many people have requested that I do my updates more than once per month. Although I was hesitant to do this because so much government data is monthly, I will try this for a while to see how it goes. Also, thanks for all the positive feedback. I only asked for a yes/no reply, but many people took the time to write a more detailed response. This has influenced my decision to try a bimonthly update.
First, I believe that a very important economic change happened last week, which was bond yields increasing to a 5-year high. More important than the increase was the cause. The Chinese have begun to sell their Treasury Securities, and they have reduced their Treasury Security purchases. Since they hold over 400 billion dollars worth, if this continues they will put huge pressure on the US. Since we NEED other countries’ money to keep financing our deficit, we are forced to pay whatever is needed to borrow these funds. (Page 52 in my book.) Cheney might find out that deficits DO matter!
The second thing of importance is that gas inventories are low and refinery utilization (page 39 in my book) is down. Even without a severe hurricane (which is not unlikely), gas shortages are likely this summer.
The third thing of importance is inflation; NOT core inflation, but the 0.7% increase in total inflation in May. The average for the last three months, on an annual basis, is 7%. Note that these numbers are not hidden. It is just that the government, press, and investors have chosen to only look at core inflation, which was only 0.1%. But the consumer is affected by the 7% total inflation, and so is the economy (Page 67 in my book).
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If China cashes in our trillion dollar debt (which they have been doing as of recently), between all the other events transpiring, it's game over for our economy--the US will drop from a 1st world to a 3rd world nation almost overnight.
Rest of link here |
